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Thread: Moon Myths

  1. #41
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    Here's a little more to consider. First you are taking biased data (catches from anglers who fish particular lakes, times and lures) and applying it in an unbiased fashion. I think that's okay as long as you recognize the data limitations (uncertainty). For example the fact that the 95% data is between 6 am and 10 pm is a red flag that there isn't much might fishing data in this set.

    Now the only hypothesis you can support or draw any conclusions from the data is #3 regarding moon rise/set since the data does not provide any information to support /deny the other hypotheses. In looking at the data from hypothesis 3 you indicate a 20% increase around moon rise/set. You then take this data which you are applying in an unbiased fashion and now adding bias by eliminating sun rise/set coassociaton. Simply you can't do that. Actually, you may have presented error bars around the 20% between 13 and 28% depending upon if you focused on full/new moon periods or deleted sun rise/set. I wasn't real clear in your original description.

    Although the data directly indicate a 20% increase in catches associated with moon rise/set, I made a worst case assumption that an angler would never fish more than 12 hours and therefore only experience one moon rise/set period. Any given hour would have an 8% chance of producing a musky but moon rise/set is at worst 13%. So, my point is that the moon is statistically significant.

    I think the 20% number is actually the correct number to use based upon the data.

    Unfortunately, I think what we would really need is the actual number of hours each angler fished and if they fished during a moon rise/set period. The data set doesn't provide that which adds more uncertainty in the analysis.

  2. #42
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    I have fished muskies for 30 years and have caught 100% of my fish from Wet Places on days ending with " Y " when I'm awake and in a boat. ( correction I have caught 2 from a dock )

  3. #43
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    its great Doug J posted, while my sample is only a few hundred fish from LOTW ( tiny fraction of Doug's) that is one of the lakes, my record's show limited moon influence, but some pressure lakes in MN - moonrise/moonset triggers activity far too often to be ignored

  4. #44
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    It's refreshing to see someone making a case that challenges popular wisdom. Great winter activity!
    "All men are equal before fish". - Herbert Hoover

  5. #45
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    I think if you have taken a graduate level stats class you realize this is not a "challenge" but just winter fun. I don't think the original poster feels the results are relevant, but more a fodder for discussion. H

  6. #46
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    Homer had it been moon rise or moon set I'm sure I would have taken that bait you just threw out there hook line and sinker. My case is rested.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jalwine View Post
    Homer had it been moon rise or moon set I'm sure I would have taken that bait you just threw out there hook line and sinker. My case is rested.
    It is not a case, if you are serious and want to really have credibility you need to do far more homework. It is loosely put together idea, I doubt there is actually enough data to do a responsible job though. H

  8. #48
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    Theres your answer girls.

  9. #49
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    More fodder:

    Ivan Kelly, James Rotton and Roger Culver (1996) examined over 100 studies on lunar effects and concluded that the studies have failed to show a reliable and significant correlation (i.e. one not likely due to chance) between the full moon, or any other phase of the moon.
    If so many studies have failed to prove a significant correlation between the full moon and anything, why do so many people believe in these lunar myths? Kelly, Rotton, and Culver suspect four factors: media effects, folklore and tradition, misconceptions, and cognitive biases. A fifth factor should be considered, as well: communal reinforcement

    Ironically:

    February 1, 2000: According to Allan Hall of the Sunday-Times, German researchers Hans-Joachim Mittmeyer of the University of Tubingen and Norbert Filipp from the Health Institute of Reutlingen claim the "a study of police reports for 50 new and full Moon cycles" shows that the moon is "responsible for binge drinking."

    According to Hall, Mittmeyer and Filipp claim in their paper "Alcohol Consumption and the Moon's Influence" to have studied police arrest reports and blood-alcohol tests of 16,495 people and Mittmeyer said "The results show there is a definite correlation between new and full Moons and the amount of alcohol consumed."

    What can one take from this?

    Keep alcohol out of your boat on new and full Moon cycles

  10. #50
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    There was a "glaring" statement by the original poster a few pages back that received no comment or question. It went something like, sure the moon is a big factor at sea with the tides but we are not fishing where there are tides, or something to that effect. My take is that the size of body of water certainly determines whether the considerable effect of the moon causes a tide or not...but the fish, animals and us still very much feel those effects. We don't use smells the way animals do for mating and other activity, but the smells are still there. I only say that because whatever the moon is doing is felt regardless of the size of the pond. We all know perfectly well the moon only works when it works and it doesnt work a lot of the time. If you have fished enough to experience those special times, no statistical evividence will sway you. The trick for all of us is to learn the special thing that is also happening or not happening when the mass suicide occurs and the sky is still blue!

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