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Thread: Moon Myths

  1. #31
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    If you have not created a causal relationship, you just need to adjust the inputs. That is the first rule in stats. H

  2. #32
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    Jim Saric is correct in his analysis. If you elect to limit the data to a 16 hour time frame per day (6:00am -10:00pm), the number of moonrises or moonsets is not 2. It is 1.33, since one third of the moonrises or moonsets will occur during the 8 hours you are eliminating (10:00pm - 6:00am).

  3. #33
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    I have been fortunate to catch some big fish, here is the deal: all big fish have come on an hour either side of: sunrise, moonrise, moonset, moon-under foot, moon-overhead, sunset, solar bake, or midnight. These are the key times to present the right lure, in the right spot with the correct environmental conditions

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by StanS View Post
    Jim Saric is correct in his analysis. If you elect to limit the data to a 16 hour time frame per day (6:00am -10:00pm), the number of moonrises or moonsets is not 2. It is 1.33, since one third of the moonrises or moonsets will occur during the 8 hours you are eliminating (10:00pm - 6:00am).
    Only 51 of the nearly 500 data points only had 1 moon rise or moon set on the day the fish was caught. So the estimate would be roughly 1.9 moon rise or moon sets on average for this data set. This means the average catch rate is 11.8% per hour vs the catch rate at moon rise and moon set at roughly 13%. This is still not a statistically significant difference. However, if it makes everyone feel better I will concede moon rise or moon set may improve your fishing catch rates by up to 1.2%.

  5. #35
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    I'm in Jim's camp on this one...and while your argument is fine, without effort data you cannot truly assign significance to moon phase correlation.

  6. #36
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    in all seriousness, I believe some lakes/muskies in them are more influenced by the moon than others, in these lakes it especially seems to improve the "mood" of truly large fish-48"+

  7. #37
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    Using your data, an increase from 11.8% to 13% catch rate is actually a 10% increase in your catch rate, not 1.2% (13/11.8=1.10). That being said, I still believe you are drawing conclusions from incomplete data. There are way too many variable that have not been accounted for me to put any stock into the conclusions. Also, it is obviously impossible to know the exact number of muskies caught in a given year, but I will go out on a limb and say that 500 fish is a fraction of a percentage of the total. This simply doesn't represent a siginificant enough portion of the catch to draw conclusions from.

  8. #38
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    What I meant to demonstrate is that if you catch 100 fish a season by fishing moon rise and moon set you might expect to catch 1.2 extra fish per year over a random pair of hours. There is not a statistically significant difference between the two numbers 11.8% and 13% given the data set. As stated I used the 2012 muskie inc data. After scrubbing, 500 data points remained. This is of course a fraction of the muskie caught in a given year. For statistical purposes though 500 is actually quite a large sample set. You can definitely draw conclusions from it. There is over a decade worth of fishing log data out there from muskie's inc. If someone were so inclined they could do a similar study to the one I completed on the whole data set. You would wind up with tens of thousands of data points and an incredibly precise answer. I'd wager it would be the exact same answer I've presented. The process however is very tedious because there isn't a clean way to match dates to moon phases. It has to be manually done. My patience on the process just gave out after 1 years worth of data. For me the analysis completed was more than sufficient to answer the question. I'm content. I've enjoyed the lively and good spirited discussion. I however, must rest my case.

  9. #39
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    I too don't have much faith in any benefits from the moon. Many of my thoughts have been similar to your analysis. I also suspect that if effort (how long did it take you to catch a fish) could somehow be accurately collected and some how all the variables involved with fishing success separated you would find that the various moon factors would have very little effect. From a biological standpoint (what can fish sense), the actions of the moon would seem to be a big stretch.

    I find that one of the favorite things for fishermen to discuss is something that makes them think they can somehow predict fishing success. And when we do have success we immediately know how come we where successful. In reality the reason we think probably has little to do with it and it's probably due to the fact that you finely found a fish that was hungry.

    That's part of what makes fishing (particuraly Muskies) such a wonderful thing to do.

    Doug Johnson
    Last edited by dougj72; 03-16-2013 at 02:51 PM.

  10. #40
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    Are you not relying on those giving the information to Muskie Inc. the right information as well.

    It's become obvious to this caveman that there is a segment of this boards population that needs to stop over thinking this. You fish when you can. If said fish strike during one of those periods...take a picture and fish some more. If you must crunch numbers about something that matters to few; maybe just maybe you all can discuss it at Band Camp.

    Dork says what?

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