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Thread: Moon Myths

  1. #11
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    I’d love for a connection to be there. A predictable and rhythmic way to increase catch rates? Sign me up! Beyond the fact that it’s just not in the data I see no mechanism via which fish would be influenced by the moon in a lake. Gravitational pull is too weak. Light levels don’t seem to matter. Are we to think Musky sit like gators just beneath the surface watching for a moon event on the horizon to signal them to put the feedbag on? As much as I’d like it to be true, I struggle with plausibility. Sabermetrics... or perhaps muskiemetrics. I like it!
    Last edited by Jalwine; 03-15-2013 at 01:40 PM.

  2. #12
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    Jalwine, with all due respect. How bout the mechanism that a bunch of really good musky fisherman believe it, that makes it plausbile enough for me.

    Just because it doesn't make sense on some excel spreadsheet doesn't mean it isn't real.

    StormyK

  3. #13
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    Jawline your data points to the fact that moon rise/set matter, I believe you are not applying the statistics correctly.

  4. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by StormyK View Post
    Jalwine, with all due respect. How bout the mechanism that a bunch of really good musky fisherman believe it, that makes it plausbile enough for me.

    Just because it doesn't make sense on some excel spreadsheet doesn't mean it isn't real.

    StormyK
    Stormy that is a fair statement. You and I just have fundamentally different world views. I don’t fault you for your stance, I know many people are of that opinion and I respect it. For me though, other people’s belief on a matter isn’t sufficient evidence. I would characterize the claim that musky react to a distant and faint celestial object without a discernible mechanism as… extraordinary. For me, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. The evidence I see it indicates there is not a relationship between moon phases and musky catch rates. I’ll happily revise that view if I come across further evidence to the contrary (assuming its derived from an independent and sufficiently large sample size).

    Jim>> I sent you a PM, I'm happy to share the data.

  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jim Saric View Post
    Jawline your data points to the fact that moon rise/set matter, I believe you are not applying the statistics correctly.
    Jim... Here's the disconnect. Moon phases happen twice a day. Since I'm looking at hour increments that would be 2 out of 24 hours. If I understand you correctly you are saying that should yield a catch rate of 8% (1/12). However since the catch rate around moon rise and moon set is 13% this indicates increased catch rates. The catch (no pun intended) here is that 95% of the data occurred between 6am and 10pm. Not many people fish at night (comparatively in the data anyway). So we are really only looking at a 16 hour period. 2 events in 16 hours is 1/8 which is 12.5% and not substantively different from 13%. Therefore I conclude there is no statistical difference. Hopefully that explanation helps as I did a poor job in the original post.

  6. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jalwine View Post
    For me though, other people’s belief on a matter isn’t sufficient evidence...For me, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...f/32701459.pdf

    I do love evidence-based practices; however, we must keep in mind that at times even though the numbers aren't sufficient to support a claim, that doesn't mean we should ignore it.

  7. #17
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    This a case of probability and outcomes failing to meet angling reality. I started to study the moon more seriously after Tom Gelb seminar several years ago. The slides, the fish, the data, the science of the thing just blew me away. Even though Tom is quick to always say, "weather trumps moon," moon is plenty. The first time I fished all damn day without a bite and then caught 3 fish in 4 casts well away from the boat right at a moon event totally woke me up. You just gotta play the odds for the most part, but know when they are not right.

  8. #18
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    Jalwine, do you have any idea how many extraordinary things happen everyday that simply do not have any statistical evidence to support that they happened or even should have happened. Cal Ripkens and Brett Favres career starts defy all baseball and football stats but they still happened. Juhas ever catching a musky defies all stats, but he still catches them. The fact that I've replied more than once in a research thread is extraordinary, but it just happened today.

    Yes we have different world views, mine comes from underneath a Stormy Kromer or a visor typically enjoying beer with good friends and family. No need to report anything different or change your views on my end. You believe your spreadsheet, I'll believe my thirty plus years of hunting and fishing experience. I respect your views as well.

    StormyK

  9. #19
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    I'm enjoying a fine Friday night beer at this very moment StormyK, so cheers to that.

  10. #20
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    My experience fishing for pretty much all types of fish says moon matters. The logic behind this argument seems pretty flawed. First, and probably most important, 500 is a very small sample size. Additionally, on the surface it appears that many assumptions are being made. Many days if I get out on the water after work at say 5, there will be a parking lot full of trucks at the landing. Usually when I get done it's down to me and maybe one or 2 others. Angling pressure is not equal throughout the day. Also, one season doesn't have any statistical relevance in terms of moon phases. The typical musky season only lasts approximately 6 months. What were the weather conditions during each of those events? What days of the week did they fall on? How many angler hours were logged during each?

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